March 13-14, 1999

Regal Harvest House Hotel

1345 Twenty-Eigth Street

Boulder, Colorado

303-443-3850; fax 303-443-1480

Note 1: Prior to the workshop, the following documents will be distributed to participants for their review:

1. A summary of the SCEC/GEM workshop at Santa Fe, New Mexico, October 1997.
2. The GEM "white paper" written by John Rundle.
3. A summary of the SCEC/GEM workshop at San Francisco, December 1998.
4. The KDI preproposal.
5. A summary of the ACES workshop at Brisbane/Noosa, Australia, February 1999.

Most of this material can be found at http://www.npac.syr.edu/projects/gem/EarthPredict/

Note 2: Anyone displaying an overhead or other material must bring a copy for the workshop proceedings.

1. What is GEM and a brief review of the history of GEM - John Rundle (10 min)
2. Introduction to ACES, and a summary of the Brisbane workshop - John Rundle (10 min)
3. GEM, Earthquake Physics, and the future Earthquake Center - Tom Henyey (20 min)
4. Perspectives on earthquake simulations from the NAS committee on the future of earthquake science - Tom Jordan (20 min)
5. Thoughts on workshop topics from

• David Jackson (10 min)

• Ralph Archuleta (10 min)

• Bernard Minster (10 min)

• Jim Dieterich (10 min)

• Bill Klein (10 min)

• Charlie Sammis (10 min)

The workshop has five major objectives that will provide the basis for discussions:

Topic I: Solidify the rationale for a GEM initiative, and for that initiative to be housed under the Southern California Earthquake Center and its successor.

Topic II: Discuss how GEM might be imbedded in a broader earthquake physics program of high-performance computing (simulations) and data collection/analysis.

Develop 3-5 major ideas to form the science focus of a GEM initiative. Suggestions include:

• Long range correlations vs long range interactions in seismicity patterns.
• How does segmentation arise along major faults
• Stress transfer and stress shadows, and their role in controlling seismicity.
• Friction laws in the lab vs friction laws on faults.
• How does a small earthquake become a big one?

Topic III: Develop an action plan for spending seed money of $100K designated by NSF for GEM.

Topic IV: Begin planning for a full-blown KDI proposal on the assumption that the pre-proposal is approved.

One hour will be devoted to discussing the computational environment.

Topic V: Explore establishing a "national program" in earthquake simulations (U.S. counterpart to ACES) or whether SCEC/CERC/Something-else is that program, and discuss the proposed future participation in ACES by the U.S.